Latin immigrants in the United States, both legal and illegal, are leaving the country or moving around within the U.S. in increasing numbers of late, and it has nothing to do with border patrols, fence-building and immigration legislation. Asked why they’re leaving, many note that the type of available work that made the U.S. so attractive when they came over the border is now drying up. The housing boom and more recent slowdown have been discussed ad nauseum in the media and at local watering holes over the past decade, but what has often been overlooked in those discussions is the effect that the slowdown has on employment and, specifically, on immigrant employment.

A recent Washington Post article points out that, according to the National Association of Realtors, housing starts fell 23.5% between October 2004 and October 2006. In the regions specifically covered by the Post – Washington DC, Northern Virginia and suburban Maryland – home sales fell even more drastically. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors reported a 45% drop between November 2004 and November 2006, while suburban Maryland sales fell 34% over the same timeframe, according to the Maryland Association of Realtors.

While the downturn is tough on investors, real estate agents, mortgage brokers and others, those in the construction industry are hit even harder because it directly affects their livelihood – and among those working in the industry, illegal immigrants are hit the hardest. According to Steven A. Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, as many as one in three illegal immigrants work in the construction industry, and no other U.S. industry employs more illegal immigrants. Camarota, whose group supports limiting immigration, further notes that “a slowdown in the construction industry hits illegals much harder than the rest of the population”.

Those in favor of ratcheting up programs to curb illegal immigration see the hiring of illegal immigrants in the construction industry as a problem, but are even more concerned about the industry laying off workers. Ira Mehlmen, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, says “after their services are no longer required, you end up with them and with their families. There isn’t much reason for them to return home when services and other benefits are available”. Mehlman’s organization is heavily in favor of limiting illegal immigration and puts forth an argument that is oft-repeated but also quite relevant in the U.S., a developed country with a high standard of living that is, paradoxically, also cursed with an increasing poverty rate and overly-burdened social welfare system.

Mehlman’s concerns are legitimate, because many illegal immigrants who are no longer being hired are in fact moving away from the construction hotspots in Maryland, DC and Virginia and flooding other regions’ and industries’ employment markets. Conversely, however, many immigrants of both the legal and illegal variety are simply going home when the employment well runs dry.

According the Post article, El Salvadorian Amilcar Guzman’s story is one that has grown quite common in the region. Guzman, who came to Northern Virginia in 1999 at the age of 18, had a job working construction that paid $15 per hour. He worked hard during the boom and rarely had problems finding work. As the housing market drastically cooled, however, he stopped finding work. On January 20, he will board a plane with his family and return to El Salvador. According to Guzman, “There’s no work here anymore, and when there’s no work, it’s time for Latinos to go back to the countries where they came from”. Guzman, explaining the harsh competition for jobs among immigrants in Northern Virginia, echoes the sentiments of those in favor of stricter immigration policies when he says that “the Hispanic population in Virginia has grown too much, and that’s closed off a lot of job opportunities”.

The immigration debate will no doubt continue in the years to come, but it appears that the current economic and construction-industry outlook may further ignite what has already been a heated debate both inside and outside the walls of Congress. Particularly troublesome to Americans competing for jobs like that previously held by Amilcar Guzman is the prospect of continuing employment troubles at the hands of illegals or even legal immigrants, whom they often believe should not have been allowed in the country at all. The immigration issue is also difficult for politicians, however, because they must balance the need to appear “compassionate” – a major political buzzword of late – with the pragmatism necessary to properly administer the country.

With construction industry jobs ceasing to exist, unemployment fears on the horizon, interest rates rising to stem inflation, and an already-taxed social welfare system being further drained by immigration’s resultant population increase, the issue will likely come to a head in the next presidential election. While the Iraq war and the economy will likely dominate the rhetoric of the candidates, the immigration issue will become a natural sub-topic of any economic policy discussion. What that means for the nation’s legal and illegal immigrants, as well as other Americans competing for the same jobs, remains to be seen.

Tags: construction jobs, housing market, immigrant labor, immigrant workers, immigration, real estate jobs

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