300 Million Ponderings About the U.S. Population
By: Mick, October 16th, 2006
It was interesting to follow the pseudo-news reports of the U.S. Census Bureau’s “official estimate” that today the population of the United States eclipsed the 300 Million mark for the first time. To think that the federal government is capable of accurately tracking the population of the country is laughable, but this is the formula they have been using to support their claims, according to the AP:
The Census Bureau counts the population every 10 years. In between, it uses administrative records and surveys to estimate monthly averages for births, deaths and net immigration. The bureau has a “population clock” that estimates a birth every seven seconds, a death every 13 seconds and a new immigrant every 31 seconds. Add it together and you get one new American every 11 seconds.
While the validity of the 300 Million “estimate” and the accuracy of the “population clock” are questionable at best, the mere claim offers an opportunity to reflect on the state of the country and what the current population numbers mean for job seekers and employers.
It’s important to note that the steadily increasing population and any impossible-to-verify population plateaus that may be reached will not have nearly the impact on the economic health of the country as other factors such as the global political climate, the price of oil, and the strength of the stock market, to name a few. But if we suspend disbelief and assume that there are now somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 million Americans running around the country at this very moment, one starts to wonder about what that means for future population growth and its consequences for our existing resources, both natural and economic. For the most part, the United States is only densely populated on the coasts and in a few select urban centers around the interior of the country. Anyone that’s spent time in or simply driven through the plain states can attest to this fact.
The populations of the major urban centers in the country, however, have consistently declined in recent decades as people have spread into suburban and rural areas to escape the poverty, crime, and generally poor social infrastructure that have plagued most large U.S. cities. And while these same problems still exist to a large extent today, many U.S. cities have successfully stemmed their population declines and some have even started to attract new residents. Much of the renewed attraction to urban life can be attributed to the large influx of immigrants to the U.S., whether legal or illegal. It is often easier for immigrant workers to live in an urban center that offers public transportation and the greater likelihood that they can work within a short distance of their home. But as immigrants and the next generation of the American workforce are discovering the positives of an urban lifestyle, there is still a large portion of the population that is demanding and receiving larger houses on more land, further and further from any urban center.
This phenomenon is already straining natural resources in the form of utility provision, new road requirements, healthcare costs, and general overdevelopment of once-pristine land. What’s left of the middle class and the working class in this country have been sold on the concept that they should be living in single family homes in pre-fabricated communities amidst people of similar socio-economic status and ethnicity. Their exodus from major cities has led to high instances of vacant and abandoned housing and the deterioration of public education and public works services in many urban areas. Without the sustained revenue stream of a healthy tax base, no major city can flourish.
But just as fear of cultural diversity and poor economic conditions drove people from cities in recent decades and helped to perpetuate the continuing problems of suburban sprawl and unchecked development, perhaps a new reality is on the horizon. With the recent spike in gas prices, many people were introduced for the first time to the concept of a finite resource and the practical advantages that exist for those that live in urban settings with a lessened need for personal transportation and other so-called luxuries. The manufacturing jobs that sustained many cities no longer exist, but the digital economy is quickly filling up the abandoned warehouses and plants with workers of a new era. This is not to say that people are going to begin re-inhabiting cities en masse, but the prevailing thought process seems to be changing.
In recent years, many people, including retiring baby boomers and many young people in search of career opportunities, are realizing that a city can be a great place to live. And because of the immediate proximity of many services and amenities, the overall cost of living in a city can be far less than that of similarly priced housing in a suburban or rural area. The closeness of neighbors and the sense of community can be much more powerful in an urban setting, where people are living in and caring for smaller spaces. There is a shared responsibility that is difficult to duplicate in a suburban setting and it ultimately can lead to a better life experience.
Although I’ve focused on more of the positive imagery associated with an urban lifestyle, there is still much work to be done in virtually every major city in the country. Crime, poverty, and decaying infrastructures plague most of the major cities in America. But as the population continues to grow, it would seem that the most efficient and effective societal model would include a renewed emphasis on city living and bringing people together as opposed to continuing to push new sprawl and unchecked development. From an economic, environmental, and cultural perspective, it would seem that a thriving and efficient urban center would offer a much better solution than countless 600-home suburban communities with sediment ponds and run-off problems that eventually contaminate local streams and rivers.
From the perspective of job seekers, some of the greatest complaints of employees around the country now include long commute times, infuriating traffic jams, expensive parking and a host of other issues that stem from working in cities but living in outlying areas. Though it’s not reasonable to expect that these issues alone will spur a greater move back into U.S. cities, continued events like this past year’s spiking gas prices may turn a few heads each time they occur and offer an “assist” in revitalizing urban centers.
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